[Hiring] International Consultant @UNDP

Role Description

The UNFPA regional office for Arab States (AS) is seeking the services of an international consultant to conduct demographic resilience reviews in selected countries. The work is part of an interregional effort by UNFPA regional offices for Arab States (ASRO) and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECARO) to support evidence-based policies for adaptation to demographic change.

The demographic resilience reviews will be based primarily on secondary data. The analysis will be undertaken with the support of a national consultant and in close collaboration with UNFPA Country Offices and national counterparts in each of the selected countries. The analysis will address the following questions for each of the selected countries:

• How will future demand for public goods and services, like education, health, social protection, pensions etc., evolve with projected changes in the size, age structure and territorial distribution (e.g. rural vs. urban) of the population?
• What will happen to public budgets and fiscal balances as the population size and structure change?
• How might the forecasts be influenced by and in turn influence gender, regional and other disparities?

The consultant will undertake the following tasks:

• Conduct a desk review of existing models and methodological approaches for estimating future demand for and supply of public goods and services.
• Develop an inception report detailing the overall methodological approach, workplan, and data requirements for the assignment.
• Review and compile national and subnational population projections and demographic trends for each country.
• Generate estimates of future demand for public goods and services as shaped by demographic change over a 30-50 year time horizon for each country.
• Generate estimates of changes in public budgets and fiscal balances as shaped by changes in the population size and age structure.
• Develop a draft consolidated demographic resilience review report for each country.
• Develop presentation slides highlighting key findings and recommendations for each country.
• Participate in discussion and validation of findings at national and multi-country levels.
• Develop and submit the final demographic resilience review report for each country.
• Contribute to a foresight-based analysis on other major factors or shifts that may affect the demand for and supply of public goods and services.
• Develop and submit an overall methodological report documenting all steps of the methodological approach and the application.

Qualifications

• Advanced university degree in demography, economics, statistics, social sciences, GIS, foresight analysis or related fields. A PhD degree in the relevant areas is highly preferable.
• Minimum 15 years of relevant professional experience in demographic and economic analysis.
• Demonstrated experience in macro-fiscal forecasting, public expenditure modeling, and/or spatial data disaggregation is an asset.
• Excellent analytical and writing skills.
• Demonstrated expertise in drafting technical reports and policy briefs.
• Strong communication and analytical skills.
• Familiarity with the mandate of UNFPA is an asset.
• Experience with the UN or INGO in the area of economic policies will be an asset.
• Experience working in the Arab context is an asset.

Requirements

• Full professional proficiency in both written and oral English; a working knowledge of Arabic or French is desirable.

Benefits

• Home based work, with possible missions to attend, for which travel expenses will be covered by UNFPA separately.

Company Description

UNFPA is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The UNFPA Strategic Plan for 2026-2029 articulates the organization’s response to a complex global environment, providing a roadmap for resilience and renewal.